Breaking Down Pacquiao-Marquez I with A "Preponderance of Evidence" Scorecard

As the November 12 trilogy bout between Manny Pacquiao  and Juan Manuel Marquez draws closer, it’s only natural to think about their previous fights and want to revisit them — after all, only 1 point separates them on the judge’s scorecards after 24 rounds of epic boxing.  A number of boxing journalists and bloggers have done just that, so I’m cautious about what I can hope to add to the discussion.  But the rehashes I’ve read have left me still wanting something that analyzes a bit more deeply what happened on the judge’s scorecards, and how did that square with what Compubox tells us, and what the ringside commentators–especially hall of fame trainer Emmanuel Steward and Larry Merchant–and the two trainers saw while the fight was happening.

My concept was this: re-watch the fight and create a “Preponderance of Evidence” scorecard that takes into account the round by round official scorecards; the compubox figures; the HBO commentary team’s analysis from ringside (particularly Emmanuel Steward) — and in this way see what the evidence, viewed carefully and analytically, yields.

Although this started out as an analytic exercise, it quickly became something more — a journey through one of the most scintillating and dramatic fights ever, and so my record of it contains a description of each round that draws equally upon my careful observations (with lots of stopping, re-viewing, etc) and the key pieces of commentary from the HBO team.  Finally, particularly as the fight entered the critical later rounds, I paid particular attention to what trainers Freddie Roach and Nacho Berestain were revealing about their perception of the fight in the their between-rounds instructions and exhortations to the fighters.  It all makes for a rather long report — but one that to me seemed to be worth the effort.

And — who wins the fight, by the “Preponderance of Evidence” scorecard?  Truth is, I didn’t know how it would come out when I began the journey, and I did not “cook the books” to make it come out one way or another — I just followed the rules described above, and let the chips fall where they may.

Here goes:

May 8, 2004

Manny Pacquiao vs Juan Manuel Marquez I

Judges: Burt Clements, Guy Jutras, John Stewart
Announcers: Jim Lampley, Larry Merchant, Emmanuel Steward, and Harold Lederman (HBO Unofficial Judge)

Pre-Fight

Lamply Intro: “They first met 7.5 years ago. Marquez is on a 13 fight win streak. Pacquiao was coming off 11gth round knockout of Barrerra.”

Round 1

Merchant: “Marquez comes out in a more offensive stance than usual.”
Steward: “Both guys seem a little uncomfortable right now trying to get their range and get their rhythm.”

Pacquiao throws a left and Marquez counters with hard left hook to the body, then a right to Pacquiao’s head that knocks Manny back. Pacquiao claps his gloves together in his famous “bring it on” motion — but he resumes with more caution. After 20 seconds of feints, Pacquiao first a left and again, Marquez counters effectively. So far Marquez seems to have the better of it.

Steward notes of Pacquiao: “Right now he seems to have a problem getting his rhythm together…..he’s leaving himself exposed when he throws his punches.

Another left from Pacquiao, and another strong counter from Marquez that sends Pacquiao backward three steps, almost to the ropes.

Lampley: “Pacquiao’s getting picked off now by Marquez–”

Before Lampley can finish what he’s saying, Pacquiao–not happy, obviously, by being rocked back into the ropes– charges forward and BOOM — he floors Marquez with a shuddering left.

Lampley: “And there’s the punching power of Pacquiao”.

Steward: “I don’ t know if Marquez is really that hurt, or just got hit with a straight left hand right down the pike.”

Marquez is up, and in fact he doesn’t look wobbly. Pacquiao moves in to try and build on the knockdown and lands a flurry of shots.

Steward: ‘He’s hurt now.”

BOOM. Pacquiao floors Marquez for a second time in the round.  Marquez bounces back up and keeps fighting, not showing any perceptible shakiness.

Steward: “He’s not moving his head at all, he’s just standing in one position.”

Lampley: “This is why we use the word sensation ….”

Almost immediately Pacquiao knocks Marquez off balance and it looks like Marquez is about to go down, but he stabilizes and lands what Lampley terms a “good straight left” that momentarily backs Pacquiao off — but only momentarily.

Pacquiao has Marquez near the ropes and he gets him with another left, and Marquez goes down, clinging to the ropes on the way down, which results in Pacquiao doing the one questionable act most of us have ever seen — a punch thrown at Marquez when he is already technically down. (Pacquiao would later say that Marquez was holding himself up on the rope, and wasn’t down — but replays show that he was down, although Manny’s view was partially blocked by Joe Cortez, the referee.)
This time Marquez doesn’t bounce right up — he lays back and pulls his gloves up over his eyes, and for a moment it appears he won’t make the count.’ He does get up — wobbly but apparently okay.

Lampley: “Cortez is going to let the fight continue. Thirty seconds in the round.”

Pacquiao lands six more big lefts but doesn’t get Marquez down.

Merchant: “Marquez is showing tremendous heart and determination to survive this round.”

The bell rings.  What a round.

Post Round 1 Analysis/Commentary

Lampley: “MannyPacquiao is a storm. Juan Manuel Marquez hasn’t ever seen anything like that.”
Merchant: “Who has?”

Judges Cards:

• Official Cards
• Clements: Pac 10-7 
• Jutras: Pac 10-6
• Stewart: Pac 10-6
• Unofficial
• Lederman Card: Marquez 10-6
• Compubox
• Overall Marquez 13/40  to Pac 11/73
• Power Pac 11/31 to Marq 10/24
• 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
• Pacquiao 10-6
• Clement’s calling it 10-7 will later be mentioned by most commentators as a mistake that cost Pacquiao a split decision, since with the correct 10-6 score, Pac ends up winning 113-112 on Clements card and gets a split decision. But look at those compubox numbers.  Is it possible that Clements was thinking — without the knockdowns, Marquez wins the round — hence 10-7?  It seems a stretch in a round where one boxer got three knockdowns, but the compubox figures are interesting, aren’t they?

Merchant: “Manny Pacquiao coming at Marquez like a typhoon across the Pacific…..Marquez came out and tried to make a statement. He’s the bigger looking fighter in the ring. Maybe he thought he would be strong, and drive Pacquiao off. He paid a stiff price.”

Round 2

Pacquiao picks up where he left off.

Steward: “If Marquez would just move his head he could neutralize a lot of what Pacquiao is doing. Pacquiao is just hitting him with one punch, a straight left hand.”
Merchant: “Marquez bleeding profusely.”
Lampley: “Right, it’s a gusher. It looks like Pacquiao must have broken that nose.”
Steward: “He got hit with two straight lefts, directly on the nose.”
Lampley: “Pacquiao’s upper body movement is befuddling Marquez – he doesn’t know where to throw. And Pacquiao knows exactly where to throw.”
Steward: “And you notice Pacquiao isn’t throwing right hooks or anything else — it’s strictly one punch, that straight left hand.”

About halfway through the round, Manny throws again — and Marquez counters effectively, the first time since before the first knockdown but you can sense that he’s stabilizing.

Lampley: “If it levels out it could become a sensational fight.”
Merchant: “Marquez is making the stand of his life, because this is the fight of his life.”

After a few more inconsequential exchanges, it seems that the two fighters are getting back on an even footing. Pacquiao is still more the aggressor, but Marquez is beginning to counter effectively.

Merchant: “Marquez is now fighting more the kind of fight we anticipated at the start.”

By the last 10 seconds of the round, it’s looking pretty even, although Pacquiao’s dominance in the first half of the round should give him the round comfortably.

Steward: “He’s avoiding a lot of the straight left punches now by dropping down to his right.”
Lampley: “Marquez lands a solid left….and another one just before the bell.”

Post Round 2 Analysis/Commentary

Judges Cards:

• Official Cards
• Clements: Pac 10-9  (Pac leads 20-16)
• Jutras: Marquez 10-9 (Pac leads 19-16) [First sign that Jutras will see it differently.]
• Stewart: Pac 10-9 (Pac leads 20-16)
• Unofficial
• Lederman Card: Marquez 10-9 (Pac leads 29-25)
• Compubox Round 2
• Overall Pac 18/77 to 8/45 for Marquez
• Power Pac 14/27 to 7/32 for Marquez
• 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
• Pacquiao 10-9 (Pacquiao 20-15)
• Who won this round?  It’s one thing for a judge to give a fighter a round when he’s on the losing end of close Compubox figures, but highly unusual to see such when the Compubox figures are not close.  In this round, the Compubox figures  don’t lie — Pac is 18/77 to 8/45 for Marquez overall, and powershots are 14/27 for Pac, to 7/32 for Marquez.   That’s mord than double the punches (each representing a risk taken) and double the landed shots (each representing an edge in productivity), double the power shots.  How can you give the round to Marquez with those stats?  Answer: You can’t.  But Jutras did and he’s on his way to 115-110 in favor of Marquez. What fight is he seeing?  On the other hand, Stewart is on his way to 115-110 for Pac and, as the fight will unfold, it’s equally hard to see how he (and Harold Lederman on his HBO unofficial scorecard) will end up with that score as well.

Round 3

At the beginning of the round HBO puts up Harold Lederman’s unofficial scorecard and he has Pacquiao winning 20-15 after two.
Merchant: “You know that first round, with three knockdowns, would be a 10-6 round for Pacquiao. So there’s a mountain that Marquez has to climb.”
Lampley: “And in the second round Paquiao got off 77 punches to 45 for Marquez, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising if the judges gave the second round to Paquiao as well, to put him 5 points ahead in the fight.”

Not much advantage to either fighter in the first minute.
At 1:58 Cortez warns Marquez for a low blow. Manny uses his right finally, to set up his left — and Marquez counters wth a shot that Manny considers low, and looks to Cortez, but Cortez doesn’t react.

Each time Pacquiao rushes, Marquez counters.

Lampley: “Marquez now a lot more aware of Pacquiao’s speed, and therefore how to deal with it.”
Steward: “Paquiao looks so strong, though, Jim.”

Last minute of the round — even exchanges.

A big flurry at the end — Marquez seems to get the better of it.

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Berestain to Marquez: “You won the two rounds…you won the second and third rounds.”  [This is interesting in that it is the beginning of what will become Marquez’ fixation on the idea that he won both fights. You can hardly blame Berestain for pumping up his fighter; it’s interesting, though, how this feeds what will later become “the controversy” as seen from Marquez perspective.]

Judges Cards:

• Official Cards
• Clements: Marquez 10-9 (Pac leads 29-25)
• Jutras: Marquez 10-9 (Pac leads 29-26)
• Stewart: Marquez 10-9 (Pac leads 29-25)
• Unofficial
• Lederman Card: Marquez 10-9 (Pac leads 29-25)
• Compubox
• Overall Marquez 12/45  to Pac’s 9/57
• Powershots Marquez 11/30 to Pac’s 8/17
• 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard
• Marquez 10-9 (Pac leads 29-25)
• Marquez wins on all judges cards, Lederman’s card, and on compubox.  This round is unanimous.  Marquez seems to  have wrested control of the fight, at least for this round.

Round 4

At the beginning of the 4th round, Lederman comes on — gives his scoring, then says: “Jim, that first round WAS a 10-6 round. You get an extra point when you knock a guy off his feet. You get two extra points when you knock him off his feet twice. You get three extra points when you knock him off his feet 3 times. So, subtract 3 from 10-9, you get a 10-6 round.”

Steward” “It’s a competitive fight at this stage of the game, provided he (Marquez) can stay away from the straight left hand.”
Merchant: “Marquez now in the counterpunching style that got him here.”
Steward: “Pacquiao was throwing his left hand with so much power he was getting off balance and he was getting countered a lot. Now he’s throwing his left hand without getting off balance, so he won’t be as exposed.”

The two trade — a familiar pattern is not starting to manifest itself, with Pacquiao attacking, and Marquez counting.

Lampley: “Gradually, moment by moment, they are edging more toward fighting Marquez’ fight.”
Steward: “Absolutely. Every time he throws the left hand now, Marquez is trying to counter.”

Another minute passes — not too much happens.

The bell rings

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Steward: “Paquiao is having a problem with him because his entire style is off the left hand.”

Pacquiao lands a hard left — Marquez counters — they end with a flurry. Hard to call a winner in this one.

Judge’s Cards

• Official Cards
• Clements: Pac 10-9  (Pac leads 39-35)
• Jutras: Marquez 10-9 (Pac leads 37-36)
• Stewart: Marquez 10-9 (Pac leads 38-35)
• Unofficial
• Lederman Card: Marquez 10-9 (Pac leads 38-35)
• My 2011 card: Marquez 10-9 (Pac leads 38-35)
• Compubox
• Overall Marquez 12/43 Pac 12/47
• Power Marquez 9/23 Pac 8/19
• 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
• Marquez 10-9 (Pacquiao leads 38-35)
• Clements giving Pac this round is a clear anomaly as it runs counter to the other judges, and to admittedly close  compubox figures.  You have to wonder — did Clements realize his error in scoring round 1 a 10-7 round and try to equalize it here?  It’s a curious idea, but remember this “course correction”, if that’s what it is, represents a 2 point swing to correct a 1 point error, so — probably not.  But it’s interesting as this is the only time in the fight where Clements (who will ultimately score it a 113-113) goes out on a limb for Pacquiao – unlike Stewart (who will ultimately score it 115-110 for Pacquiao), who will do so several times as the fight progresses.

 Round 5

Pacquiao has become cautious now – he’s not in control — something that Freddy Roach will begin to corroborate in his instructions and exhortations between rounds.  Marquez has begun to solve the riddle of Pacquiao; and Pacquiao cannot seem yet to solve the riddle of Marquez.

Each time he makes a rush, he ducks back out and the there is not as much commitment in his shots. He’s grown very conscious of Marquez ability to counter, and it’s affecting his offense.

With 1:15 left, Marquez snaps Pacquiao’s head back with a hard right hand. He backs Pacquiao up.

Pacquiao’s fighting spirit is in evidence as he  immediately comes back with two hard shots of his own.

They trade.

Each time one lands a good shot, the other responds.

After a brief lull, at 30 seconds to go, Marquez rushes Paquiao and lands two good shots.

Pacquiao immediately responds and bulls forward, lands one — but Marquez counters effectively and seems to be getting slightly the better of the exchanges.

Lampley: “What a fight.”
Steward: “At this stage right here, Marquez is the one who’s controlling the fight, though.”

Marquez has opened up a cut in Manny’s right eye.

With 10 seconds to go, Marquez lands a flurry.

Manny comes back but the bell rings before he can really equalize the exchange.

Another round for Marquez.

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Judge’s Cards

• Official Cards
• Clements: Pac 10-9  (Pac leads 48-45)
• Jutras: Marquez 10-9 (Tied 46-46)
• Stewart: Marquez 10-9 (Pac leads 47-45)
• Unofficial
• Lederman Card: Marquez 10-9 (Pac leads 48–45)
• Compubox
• Overall Marquez 16/42 to Pac 9/49
• Power Marquez 14/29 to Pac 6/12
• 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
• Marquez 10-9 (Pacquiao leads 47-45)
• Note how Pacquiao’s punch output is falling as a result of Marquez effective countershots: 72,77,57,47,49
• Cum Power Punches through round 5
• Marquez 138 thrown, 51 landed
• Pacquiao 106 thrown, 47 landed

Round 6

Not too much action in the first minute.

Steward: “Pacquiao’s way of lunging when he attacks, it’s great if it works, lots of power, but if not, he’s off balance and you can take advantage of him, and that’s what Marquez is doing.”
Lampley: “That’s why some peole thought Marquez could win the fight.”

At 1:45 Pacquiao lets off a probing left and Marquez counters with a shot THAT ABSOLUTELY BUCKLES PACQUIAO and almost knocks him down. (This is by far the single hardest shot I’ve ever seen Pacquiao take, with the possible exception of the liver shot that Margarito landed against the ropes, also in round six of that fight.) Pacquiao’s knees buckle and if not for superb balance he would go down.

Lampley: “Hard right and stuns Pacquiao.”

But Pacquiao comes back fighting — as usual trying to mount an attack almost immediately after being hit hard.

Steward: “Great punching but I don’t think Pacquiao was that hurt it’s just that he was hit clean, and he was off balance.” [My Pinoy pals who think Steward doesn’t give Pacquiao credit — folks, this is a gift. Watching it in slow motion, Pacquiao was definitely rocked by that shot — absolutely no doubt about it.]

A few more exchanges, nothing serious.

Lampley: “Blood coming from Marquez’s nose again, after Pacquiao landed a left.”

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Roach to Pacquiao: “Listen to me. Use your double jab and straight left hand behind it, okay? Knock this guy out. DO NOT LET THIS GUY TAKE CONTROL OF THE FIGHT, you hear me?” (this is the most alarmed I’ve ever heard Roach sound — there’s a real edge in his voice.)

Berestain to Marquez: “You’ve won five rounds!”

HBO also shows Jinkee Pacquiao reacting during the round — when Pacquiao takes the hard shot that almost knocks him down, she screams and buries her face in her hands — it DEFINITELY hurt Manny.

Judge’s Cards

• Official Cards
• Clements: Marquez 10-9  (Pac leads 57-55)
• Jutras: Marquez 10-9 (Marquez leads  56-55)
• Stewart: Marquez 10-9 (Pac leads 56-55)
• Unofficial
• Lederman Card: Marquez 10-9 (Pac leads 57–55)
• Compubox
• Overall Marquez 16/42 to Pac 9/49
• Power Marquez 14/29 to Pac 6/12
• 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
• Marquez 10-9 (Pac leads 56-55)
• Note how Pacquiao’s punch output is falling as a result of Marquez effective countershots: 72,77,57,47,49
• Cum Power Punches through round 5
• Marquez 138 thrown, 51 landed
• Pacquiao 106 thrown, 47 landed

Round 7

Lampley: “Pacquiao’s offense increasingly blunted by Marquez increasingly effective tactical boxing. Marquez straight right hand landing with greater and greater frequency. Maybe he’s the one who will score the knockout.”

In this round, Pacquiao shows great resolve — he seems to have taken Roach’s advice to heart — if not the specifics of what to do, then at least the urgency in Roach’s voice and his dictum: “Don’t let this guy take control of the fight.” Pacquiao is forcing the action, walking through a lot of

Marquez shots, and beginning to seize the initiative, at least in this round.

Merchant: “Pacquiao is showing a better plan of attack in this round, trying to recapture the initiative.”

Good exchange at the end — both fighters land good punches.

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Roach to Pacquiao: “Manny, listen to me. Do not let him control the fight, back you up. You have to back him up with the jab. You back him up, you’ll get control of this fight.”

Judge’s Cards

• Official Cards
• Clements: Marquez 10-9  (Pac leads66–65)
• Jutras: Marquez 10-9 (Marquez leads  66-64)
• Stewart: Pac  10-9 (Pac leads 66-64)
• Unofficial
• Lederman Card: Pacquiao 10-9
• Compubox
• Overall Pac 19/51 to Marquez 16/43
• Power Marquez 14/30 to Pac 13/20
• 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
• Pacquiao 10-9 (Pac 66-64)
• Note:  Other than round 12, this is the closest round of the fight and the hardest to score.  The judges were split 2/1 in favor of Marquez; compubox was split with Pac winning the overall but losing the powerpunch battle; Lederman gave it to Pacquiao.  The preponderance of Evidence Scorecard gives it to Pacquiao by a hair based on activity — with everything else equal, Pac threw more punches 51 to 43 and landed more 19 to 16.  In doing this I am mindful that 2 of 3 judges saw it the other way ‘on the day”  — but detailed analysis of all available inputs shows a razor thin margin — for Pacquiao.

Round 8

This round starts out a little sloppy.
Lampley: “You hear Freddie Roach from round to round, pleading with Pacquiao, don’t let him take control fo the fight. Too late – it may already have happened.”

Accidental head butt at 1:30
Limited action …

Lampley: “Round 8 the most tactical round of the fight, as both fighters have been up on their toes the entire time.”

Paquiao lands a shot ; Marquez lands two and Pacquiao stumbles, looks awkward.

Lampley: “Pacquiao off balance, and Marquez scores against the ropes.”
Steward: “Enough to win this round.”
Lampley: “And suddenly Marquez is in position to win the round.”

As if on cue, Pacquiao lands a flurry.

Steward: “Looks like Marquez has won another round.”

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Both Berestain and Roach sound stressed between rounds — they know how close it is:

Berestain : “You can’t afford to lose any rounds because if you lose one, you’re gonna lose the fight. We can’t let the judges decide this. You decide it! ” [This is interesting because if, as Berestain has been telling Marquez, Marquez has won every round since the first, he would be ahead 76-73 and could afford to lose at least 1 round. The point being — Berestain didn’t mean it when he told Marquez he was winning every round. But this probably has something to do with Marquez own perception of the fight, and his claim that he won it.]

Roach: “Jab with the right and overhand left is working for you. Now come back with a (unintelligible) for me, okay? Finish him!” After a break, he says. “Manny, you got to back this man up when he’s taking control. Do not let him back you up, you hear me? Do not let him back you up and take control of the fight, you hear me? You be the boss out there son, okay.”

Berestain just before the bell: “Control the fight, don’t be too overconfident.”

Judge’s Cards

• Official Cards
• Clements: Pac  10-9  (Pac leads 76–74)
• Jutras: Pac 10-9 (Marquez leads  75-74)
• Stewart: Pac  10-9 (Pac leads 76-74)
• Unofficial
• Lederman Card: Pacquiao 10-9
• Compubox
• Overall Marquez 11/38 to Pac 8/43
• Power Marquez 8/23 to Pac 5/13
• 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
• Pacquiao 10-9 (Pac 76-73)
• Note:  This round is hard to figure out.  All three judges and Lederman gave the round to Pacquiao — but Compubox clearly favors Marquez and Steward saw the round for Marquez.  Merchant says he called it even but judges don’t have that luxury — it’s a 10 point must system, you have to give it to someone.
• In giving this round to Pacquiao — the other thought that occurs is that the last two rounds have been extremely close and both go to Pac by a razor thin margin.  I am seriously tempted to, out of a sense of fairness, split these two rounds one for Pac one for Marquez — but I get stuck on the fact that all three official scorecards have it for Pacquiao.  I just don’t feel that the Preponderance of Evidence can be for one fighter when all three official cards give it to the other fighter.  In essence — the three official cards all lined up for Pacquiao trump everything else.

Round 9

First half of the round is inconclusive — no clear advantage.

Steward: “Pacquiao’s not a dangerous guy when you go to him, because he’s not a counterpuncher, he only can punch when he’s coming down on you, so if you can make him back up, you don’ t have to worry he’s going to counterpunch you.”
Lampley: “Which is why Freddie Roach was telling his fighter — don’t you dare back up.”

35 seconds to go, still no clear winner.

Merchant: “So far in this round, Paquiao seems to be outboxing Marquez.”

Pacquiao lands 5 straight shots

Marquez lands two good counters

They trade shots at the end.

Everytime Pacquiao lands — Marquez counters.

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Roach: “Manny. The jab and the hook is working great for you, okay? I want more. Yeah, this guy’s tired. Do not let him take control of the fight. this is too close a fight right now.

Berestain: “He’s not doing too much with his left, but be careful of it. Keep boxing him. You’re winning round after round.”

Judge’s Cards

• Official Cards
• Clements: Marquez  10-9  (Pac leads 85–84)
• Jutras: Marquez 10-9 (Marquez leads  85-83)
• Stewart: Pac  10-9 (Pac leads 86-82)
• Unofficial
• Lederman Card: Pacquiao 10-9
• Compubox
• Overall Marquez 16/50 to Pac 15/52
• Power Marquez 10/33 to Pac 9/23
• 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
• Marquez 10-9 (Pac 85-83)
• This is another close round but you have to give it to Marquez based on 2 out of three judges and Compubox both showing Marquez to be the winner — and also with an awareness that Pac has just gotten the two previous rounds by the thinnest of margins.  The evidence in this round and fairness dictate you give it to Marquez.

Round 10

Crowd is on their feet.
Lampley: “In the last round, Pacquiao seemed to re-establish himself as the aggressor.” (Really?)

They trade at the 1:30 mark and then Pacquiao has a clear flurry where he gains the upper hand.
Brief lull, then Pacquiao lands 4-5 more that are unanswered.
In this fight — that should be enough to get him the round.
Pacquiao is definitely backing Marquez up.
Pacquiao gets another flurry
Then Marquez gets Pacquiao into the corner at the end, but it’s not enough.
Definitely a Pacquiao round

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Berestain: (Just as Marquez sits on the stool.) “Did he hurt you?” Marquez says nothing. Berestain: “Okay, let’s get some ice. It’s the 11th round, you’re almost there. Six more minutes and you’ll win.” (Berestain is clearly worried he’s tiring — he’s trying to pump him up.)

Roach: “All right Manny. Now, you’re destroying this guy when you go to him. You’re desroying him when you go to him with the 1-2. All right, Let’s finish up, okay, body and head. You hear me? Manny, it’s round number 11 son, okay, get up for me son, okay. ”

Judge’s Cards

• Official Cards
• Clements: Pac  10-9  (Pac leads 95–93)
• Jutras: Marquez 10-9 (Marquez leads  95–92)
• Stewart: Pac  10-9 (Pac leads 96–91)
• Unofficial
• Lederman Card: Pacquiao 10-9  (Pac leads 96/91)
• Compubox
• Overall Pac 18/49 to Marquez 12/53
• Power Pac 10/17 to Marquez 9/33
• 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
• Pacquiao 10-9 (Pac 95-92)
• This was a clear round for Pacquiao and Jutras’ insistence on giving it to Marquez brings his card increasingly into question.  It’s hard to see any justification for giving this round to anyone other than Pacquiao.

Round 11

Special Note:  This is really where the drama reaches its peak.  Pacquiao is in position to win the fight on all cards except Jutras if he can continue in the 11th and 12th the domination he provided in the 10th.  There is a feeling that this is what is about to happen.  But between rounds Pacquiao looks truly tired. He leans back and looks to the sky at one point. He crosses himself while still sitting in the middle of the break between rounds, something he doesn’t usually do. Then as he stands up , he looks skyward again and doesn’t cross himself (he just did on the stool), but kind of salutes heavenward. He’s clearly feeling it — feeling pushed, looking for something extra.  Marquez looks tired too between rounds, and his lack of response when Berestain says “did he hurt you?” is telling.  Both are clearly having to summon up unprecedented reserves of fortitude and courage, and both clearly know that the fight’s outcome hangs in the balance.

They begin, nothing is conclusive in the first several exchanges.

Merchant: “It’s very possible Marquez needs a knockout to win this fight.”

They’re trading — Pacquiao is more the aggressor, but Marquez is very effective with his counterpunching and the sense in watching it is that Marquez may be getting more out of his counterpunching than Pacquiao is in his attack — but it’s very close.  Each exchange contains good shots from each fighter.

During the last minute of the round they are both landing punches

Tough to see a clear winner.

Steward: “I believe he (Marquez) won this round.”

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

Berestain: “If you gonna win this, it’s an incredible victory. It didn’t look like youre gonna win, but you’ve got it now. ”

Roach: “All right Manny, this is your round, son. We need this round badly. Manny, you gotta put him on his ass this round, you hear me? Now Manny, look for the double left hand. Don’t let him be first. You have to be first.”

Berestain: “Don’t wait for nothing now — he’s tired, go after him. You’re up by three points. We’re winning this fight.”

Judge’s Cards

• Official Cards
• Clements: Marquez  10-9  (Pac leads 104-103)
• Jutras: Marquez 10-9 (Marquez leads  105-101)
• Stewart: Pac  10-9 (Pac leads 106-101)
• Unofficial
• Lederman Card: Pacquiao 10-9  (Pac leads 96/91)
• Compubox
• Overall Marquez 15/53 to Pac 13/43
• Power Marquez 10/28 to Pac 8/19
• 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:
• Marquez (Pac 104-102)
• This was a close round but I don’t see how you don’t give it to Marquez.  He wins on both Compubox figures and by this time Jutras and Stewart are both suspect — Jutras is seeing everything for Marquez, and Stewart is seeing it all for Pacquiao. Clements is emerging as the tie-breaker and he shades it for Marquez, consistent with Compubox.
• As for drama — this round was a tough one to watch.  We’ve become so used to Pacquiao being able to assert his will, and in this critical moment — Championship Round — he couldn’t quite make it happen.  Kudos to Marquez for a warrior’s guts and determination.

Round 12

Manny gets up and looks skyward again. His face tells it — he knows it’s not locked up, he’s not sure if he’s won it and he hasn’t solved the riddle of Marquez.

Crowd is on its feet.

Manny is the aggressor at the beginning, gets in a good shot on Marquez without getting countered.

But then Marquez equalizes it.

At 2:20 Marques lands another big shot.

Another clean shot at 2:18

Manny at 2:08 good left

Manny is pushing Marquez back

Manny gets the better of the next minute.

Merchant: “Two finely conditioned, highly motivated, highly skilled athletes, both with great hearts, giving you everything they’ve got.”
Lampley: “Two real fighters, from their guts. Both can fight, both can punch, both have the heart of champions.”

Last minute….

They’re trading. Neither one wants to lose the round, neither wants to give advantage.

Lampley: “There is no other candidate for fight of the year.”

Last ten seconds.

Lampley: “Fire against fire, down the stretch, Pacquiao’s left, Marquez’s right.”

There’s the bell.

How can you give that last round to one of them?

They both gave it everything.

Merchant: “I had Pacquiao winning a close fight.”

Post Round Analysis/Commentary

There is absolutely nothing to separate the two fighters in this, the final round.  Nothing. Shots landed per Compubox is, remarkably, a dead tie — 11/11 overall and 7/7 powershots — how often does that happen?

But all 3 judges see it for Marquez

Judge’s Cards

• Official Cards
• Clements: Marquez  10-9  (It’s a draw 113-113)
• Jutras: Marquez 10-9 (Marquez wins 115-110)
• Stewart: Marquez (Pac wins 115-110)
• Unofficial
• Lederman Card: Pacquiao 10-9  (Pac wins 115-110)
• Compubox
• Overall Tie 11/11
• Power – Tie  7/7
• With both of these tied — what about Punches Thrown?  Pac wins that 64/53 but is that a “win”?
• 2011 Preponderance of Evidence Scorecard:

• Marquez 10/9  (Pacquiao wins 113-112)

• Comment:  By the “Preponderance of Evidence” Rules, this round has to go to Marquez because all three official judges scored it for Marquez.   And indeed, in spite of the compubox tie — there really isn’t evidence to overturn the unanimity of the three judges.

Now — I want to make clear — I did not “cook the books” to make it come out as a tie on the “Preponderance of Evidence” Scorecard. I followed the rules I set up at the beginning and let the chips fall where they may.

The Evidence

(click on each image to enlarge)

The Official Scorecards

Official Compubox Stats

Worksheet Showing Correlations Between Compubox and Official Cards

The green cells are “with the majority” in a given round; pink cells are “odd man out”; and pink compubox cells flag the rounds where compubox is at odds with the majority of judges’ cards.

The “Preponderance of Evidence” Scorecard

• The green shading shows shows those rounds where the official judges were all in agreement, and by the rules of “Preponderance of Evidence”, the POE scorecard had to reflect the Unanimous judges ruling.
• The yellow shading shows the rounds where the judges were split but POE sided with the majority of the judges.
• The single pink shading shows the one round where the judges were split and the POE scorecard did NOT go with the majority of judges.  Here’s why:
• The judges all went for Marquez
• Compubox Overall Punches  Pac 19/51, Marquez 16/43
• Compubox Power Punches Marquez 14/30, Pac 13-20
• I went back and re-broke down the round to analyze more deeply.  This is the entire sequence in the round:
• Mar Attacks Pac, doesn’t land; Pac doesn’t counter +1 M
• Pac attacks double jabs, then lands a left; Marquez counters with single shot — +1 P
• Mar attacks Pac, three shots, doesn’t land cleanly but no response from P — +1M
• Pac attacks Mar, three shots, Mar counters, 3 shots — even
• Mar attacks pac, one shot, doesn’t land — even
• Simultaneous jabs, no advantatge — even
• Pac attacks double jabs; Mar counters; Pac double jabs and adds straight left, backs up M — +1P
• Pac attacks double jabs and throws left, M counters with a left — +1P
• Mar attacks left, right – P doesn’t counter +1M
• Mar attacks left, right – P blocks — even (Mar gets +1 in aggregate for the last two – neither very effective but Pac only blocks)
• Mar attakcs left right – P counters with three — even
• Pac attacks 3 shots, one lands hard, M counters w jab — +1P
• Pac attacks 2 shots, M counters w jab — even
• Pac attacks, double jab plus left, M counters w jab — +1P
• Pac attacks w jab, M counters, misses — even
• Pac attacks jabs; M feints; Pac jabs again — +1P
• Pac attacks w double jab, left which lands; M counters w/right — even
• Pac attacks w jab, left – M doesn’t respond – +1P
• M attacks with jab and right,  P responds with a left, M responds with two rights, P responds with right, left — even
• Pac attacks w double jab — M blocks — even
• Pac attacks w double jab, left – M counters right jab – +1P
• Pac attacks w jab – M doesn’t counter +1P
• M attacks w body shot – P doesn’t counter +1M
• M attacks with left and right that lands +1M
• Pac attacks with double jab and left; M counters w/right +1P
• Pac attacks with double jab and left; M counters w/right – even
• Pac attacks with double jab and left; bell rings +1P
• Marquez Attacks Pac – Pac counters:
• Pac Attacks Mar w/o counter:
• Pac Attacks Mar, Mar counters;
• Trading Blows – Favor Mar
• Tradiing Blows – Favor Pac

So the foregoing close analysis shows there were 16 meaningful exchanges in the round in which one fighter had an edge, and Pacquiao came out in front on 11, Marquez 6.  In terms of aggression — Marquez mounted 10 attacks; Pacquiao mounted  16.

The bottom line — while I don’t think it’s a no-brainer to give this round to Pac in spite of the judges going 2-1 the other way, I do think the “Preponderance of Evidence” is in Pacquiao’s favor.  It’s interesting though, because in a way — the whole fight turns on this.  If you conclude that the Preponderance of Evidence in this round favors Marquez and you give him this round — then he wins, not Pacquiao.

It’s that close.

Anyway — I would say the main thing I learned from this is that Pacquiao-Marquez 1 was so close that a draw really and truly probably is the fairest outcome.  You really can’t find enough to separate the two warriors to give it to one or the other — even with the benefit of hindsight, compubox stats, and multiple re-viewings of the fight.  It is truly too close to call.