Those following this blog know that I’ve waded into the box office prediction business with Avatar and thus far I’ve been right on the money, but the figures from yesterday, Friday, show the first sign of weakening in Avatar’s death match with Titanic, with Avatar at $13.3M dropping 48% from the previous Friday’s 25M, against a drop of only 33% by Titanic in the equivalent frame. Now the numbers out thus far are only an estimate, and Avatar has consistently been upgraded when estimates become real numbers — but I still see mild reason for concern and little chance that Avatar will crack the $50m barrier this weekend. That said, it does appear to be a lock to unseat Titanic’s record for 4th Weekend of $28m, and that’s nothing to sneeze at. Anyway, I’m just sayin’…..I was looking for $17m on Friday and a weekend gross of $50m but this looks more like a gross in the low-mid 40’s. If I have to eat crow I will. Meanwhile, you heard it first here…..Avatar may be showing signs of slowing down, at last. That said — it has a HUGE lead on Titanic on a “same days in release” basis ($394m to $176m), so what’s at risk here is not WHETHER it will beat Titanic — it is WHEN. See chart below. (click to enlarge)
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